Sunday, 20 May 2007

Outline some of the problems the economy might face in recovering from a period of recession


To recover from a recession there needs to be, either a rise in AD, or a readjustment in prices and wages.

Classical economists argue that a recession will only be temporary, because labour and product markets are flexible. However, Keynesians argue that wage and price rigidity can keep the economy below full capacity for a long time.


For example, to regain equilibrium it may be necessary to reduce prices and therefore reduce nominal wages by an equivalent amount. However, this may be difficult because trades unions will resist cuts in nominal wages, also firms would be unwilling to cut wages because it may lead to lower productivity amongst workers.

  1. Low Consumer confidence.

In a recession there will be rising unemployment and, therefore, a fall in consumer confidence. This will cause a rise in the savings ratio. In other words people will spend less of their disposable income and save more, leading to a bigger fall in AD. If confidence remains very low, for a long time, then it will be difficult for the govt to increase AD. For example, if the govt cut income taxes this would increase disposable income, but if confidence was low people would not be willing to spend any extra and the economy would remain in a recession.

  1. Ineffectiveness of Monetary Policy.

In a recession the Bank of England could cut interest rates to stimulate demand. Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing, and therefore people should be more willing to spend and invest. However, Monetary policy could be ineffective. Firstly, firms may be reluctant to invest, even though it is cheap to borrow, because they cannot see any increase in demand. If a country is a member of the EURO then it may be particularly difficult to increase AD in a recession. This is because interest rates will be set by the ECB and the country will have no control over interest rates. If the UK is in a recession and other countries in the Euro zone are growing too fast -interest rates may be too high

  1. Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy.

Keynesians argue that expansionary fiscal policy can be used to increase AD and get the economy out of a recession. However, there may be many problems of using fiscal policy to increase AD.

Firstly there will be time lags. It takes time for the govt to change its spending plans and once implemented it will take time for this spending plan to actually increase AD

Also increasing AD may cause crowding out. This means that if the govt increases its spending then it will lead to a corresponding fall in private sector spending. This is because the govt borrows from the private sector to finance its spending. However, Keynesians reject this argument, they argue that the govt will only be using previously unemployed resources therefore there will be no crowding out.

  1. Deflation.

If there is deflation this makes it difficult to increase demand. This is because people will not spend if they feel that prices will be cheaper in the future. Also monetary policy will become ineffective because interest rates cannot fall below 0%, therefore, with deflation real interest rates may remain high. E.g. Japan has experienced deflation during the 1990s and this made it very difficult to increase AD and economic growth.

  1. Hysteresis.

This states that what has happened in the past will affect the future. For example if unemployment is high then it is likely to continue being high. If people are unemployed for a long time they become de-motivated and less employable, because they are now less skilled (less on the job training). Also, if productive capacity is not used for a long time then firms will shut factories down completely, causing a fall in AS. Therefore, in a prolonged recession there will be not just a fall in AD, there will also be a fall in AS, causing a permanent fall in the potential output of an economy. This occurred during the Great depression of the 1930s.

  1. Supply side shocks.
If there were a fall in AS, as well as AD, this would make the recession more severe. For example, if there was a rapid rise in the oil price like in the 1970s then AS would shift to the left causing lower growth and higher inflation.

What a outlook matters in one's eye on his own economy

Booming and Bubbling India-II


India vs. China: The eight Indian companies are part of S&P’s list of 300 mid-size companies across 37 countries in the latest S&P Global Challengers List. India ranks seventh in terms of the companies per country that figure in the list. In contrast, China has four companies on the list.

An innovative nation: In a new study, India has emerged as the second best place for business innovation after the US. In a survey of 485 senior executives worldwide carried out by Hong Kong-based Economist Intelligence Unit, Japan has emerged as the world’s most innovative nation in terms of business practices, followed by Switzerland, US and Sweden. India has been ranked at 58th position, ahead of China’s 59th position in a ranking of 82 economies, based on their level of innovation during 2002-06. But the report also concludes that India will give away its lead over China as an innovative country in the next five years.

IT excels: IT services major Wipro Technologies said it has bagged the ‘SAP Pinnacle Award’ in the area of Software Solutions Leadership.

Industrial Manufacturing CorridorAccording to India and Japan, the DMIC (Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor) project-to be launched in 2008 and completed by 2015-would entail an investment of $45-50 billion.

Corporate India helps rural poverty alleviation:
HLL will aim to reach 600 million consumers in five-lakh villages through one-lakh entrepreneurs by 2010.

India matters for Airbus and Boeing: Rapidly expanding Indian carriers have ordered close to $40 billion worth of big jets over the past two years. So far, Airbus, has bagged 295 orders from Indian customers since January 2005, vs. 138 for Boeing. The value of Boeing’s order book is close to $20 billion at list prices, while it is roughly $22 billion for Airbus.

Chindia ahead of other BRIC members: According to a survey of 350 international, mainly expatriate investors, mostly belonging to the US, UK and continental Europe by Luxembourg-based broker Internaxx, Chindia make a more compelling proposition than the first half of the BRICs acronym. The survey found that 42 per cent of international investors felt positive about China and 32 per cent about India, while only five and six per cent respectively felt positive about Brazil and Russia.

White Revolution continues: Indian dairy industry will reach Rs5.20 lakh crore by 2011. “Out of the anticipated output of 120 million tonnes, the share of liquid milk will be 97.5 million tonnes, while the remaining 22.5 million tonnes will get converted into milk products.”

Manufacturing Sector Moving in top gear: India’s manufacturing sector registered the highest growth in over a decade at 14.1 per cent in March 2007, up from 10.1 per cent in the same month of the previous year, the commerce and industry ministry said Tuesday. The growth rate of the sector has doubled since 2002-03 from six per cent to 12.3 per cent in 2006-07.

Sky-High Ambitions of Indian Outsourcers: Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has worked on projects for GE Aviation involving digitally testing the configuration of jet designs and is currently designing the business class portion of a plane for an undisclosed aviation customer. Tata Technologies hopes to leverage the expertise of its parent company to reduce the cost and weight of airline components for international customers. Infosys has designed part of the Airbus A380 super jumbo jet, which is now undergoing test flights. Last year it set up an engineering center to team with Spirit Aerosystems (SPR), a major supplier of structures including fuselage, nose sections, and floor beams.

India’s Global raid continues: Billionaire Vijay Mallya’s distillery group agreed to buy Scottish liquor maker Whyte & Mackay for 595 million pounds ($1.18 billion, Rs4, 700 crore), extending a record year for international takeovers by Indian companies. Mallya formed United Spirits by combining McDowell & Co, Shaw Wallace & Co, Herbertsons and other liquor makers of the group. The company, with 145 brands and 69 factories, became the world’s third largest spirits company after Diageo and Pernod Ricard. Today’s acquisition of Whyte & Mackay promises to enhance Mallaya’s position in the Forbes’ list of billionaires, which placed him 746th in 2006.

Mumbai’s famed diamond district of opera house becoming a global diamond-trading hub:
Indians are becoming integrated global players, involved in the entire supply chain right from sourcing of the gems to retailing finished jewellery. The recent spate of acquisitions by the big players in the business of reputed US brands, and the removal of import duty on polished diamonds are giving big push in the direction of creating a global hub in India. India is already the largest manufacturer of cut and polished diamonds with 10 out of every 11 diamonds being processed here. Diamond and jewellery exports reached $16.6 billion last year, second only to IT-related exports. With London and Antwerp slowly declining in importance, India could soon become the manufacturing as well as trading hub.

India exports cars: The export of passenger cars from India is expected to touch one million by 2010, a shade lower than the last financial year’s total domestic sales of 1.3 million, and nearly a third of the projected production of three million. Last year, the country exported only 198,478 cars - less than 13 per cent of the 1,544,850 produced.

India Attractting global manufacturers: Singapore-based $2.1b IT component major eSys Technologies, with worldwide back office operations is investing Rs 1,000 cr in India. This includes a Rs 250 crore investment in setting up a PC manufacturing plant at Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh with an annual capacity of 1.2 million units and another Rs 100 crore in global back-office operations in Chandigarh.

India as R&D hub

1.The world’s largest manufacturer of healthcare products, Johnson & Johnson, is making India a global hub of its research and development as it looks to ramp up its pharmaceutical business in the country. The company is investing $17.5 million in its analytical and pharmaceutical development centre in Mumbai, which conducts early-stage drug development. In a few months, the number of professionals working there will rise from 65 to 150.

2.Korean consumer electronics major Samsung would hire about 700 R&D software engineers for its centre at Noida. “Currently, we employ 300 people at Samsung India Software Centre (SISC) and would take the number up to 400 by this year end, eventually we hope to touch 1,000 in the next three years,” Samsung India Electronics Vice President Software Centre Vikram Vij told PTI.

3.Blackberry-maker Research In Motion (RIM) will soon set up its R&D and customer support base in India. The company could in fact look at turning India into a hub for its customer support services eventually.

4.Indian expatriates returning to work on R&D: According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), there are already over 250 Indian expatriates who have returned to work on R&D in domestic automobile companies Mahindra & Mahindra, Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors and Hindustan Motors. SIAM predicts that their numbers will double in two years. With investments of over Rs 100,000 crore lined up in the Indian automobile industry, and European and US car majors making an aggressive push into India, Indian car companies have begun to understand the significance of R&D.

Textile sector invests tons: India’s textile sector is expected to attract investment of Rs 150,600 crore in the next five years and will achieve the export target of Rs 225,665 crore (55 billion dollars) by 2012. The industry that is growing by 9-10 per cent would increase to 16 per cent in the coming years.

India getting benchmarked: Nissan Motor Co, Japan’s third-largest automaker, is designing a $2,500 car to compete in India with the low-cost model planned by Tata Motors, Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn said. “We are working on how we can make a car for $2,500,” Ghosn told reporters today at a dinner in Versailles, France. A Nissan advance engineering group is doing the study,” he said.

Is not India bubbling

certainity is illusion and growth is neccessity

Some of the problems with our prevalent economic system as I understand it is this:

Money is created by banks. In part by central banks who can make up amounts and lend them out, mainly to central governments, but also to regular banks.

The worst problem is not that the central banks are mostly outside the control of any elected representatives of the population, even though that is certain cause for some suspicion and alarm. In some areas, such as the U.S., the central bank is a completely privately owned institution, owned by its member banks. The central bank of central banks, the Bank of International Settlements in Basel Switzerland, is also not controlled or owned by any government, but is a corporation with stocks. It is located on land that is not considered part of Switzerland or any other country, it is not answerable to any public body, and it does its business in secret.

However, the worst problem is that interest is being charged for the money that is lent out. It might well be a good idea to use fiat money, that is, money that doesn't have any inherent value, but is only valuable because we trust that it is. All currencies on the planet are, as far as I know, fiat money. However, the problem is the interest.

For example, the Federal Reserve Bank lends a billion dollars to the U.S. government. That money is created out of thin air. The Federal Reserve Bank doesn't particularly lend it out because it has accummulated produced value. It simply has been given the authority to invent the money. It gives the money to the government. The government spends it one what it thinks it needs to spend money on. The money is now due back from the tax payers. That is not in the first place a problem, since the money is out there in circulation.

But, the bank wants the money back with interest. And the ridiculous thing is that there is nowhere the money can come from except for by being lent out by banks.

The central bank is not the only one that can create money. Any bank can. Regular banks create money by being allowed to lend out a certain number of times more money than they have deposits for. For example, if there is 1 million in the bank, it can lend out 10 million, thereby creating 9 new millions.

Regular banks also charge interest. Meaning that, no matter how much they create, they always need MORE back.

Technically speaking, that is impossible. It only appears possible because there are enough banks around and the total economic transactions are complicated enough that it always seems like there is somewhere else the money can come from. But, if we add it all up, there isn't anywhere else it can come from.

People trust money to be valuable, so they use it as a medium of exchange. That drives the production of a lot of things, and it buys people a lot of things that they want. And, as long as the wheels keep spinning around, that seems OK.

However, the system can't lead to anything else but a higher and higher amount of money that is being owed to banks. That is, national debts increase, and personal debts increase, and a higher and higher percentage of the actual assets in the world are being owned by the banks as "security" for the debts.

All current money systems are based on debt. If all debts in the world were paid back there would be no money in existence. I repeat, NO money. However, that in itself is impossible in that there isn't enough money around to pay all the debts that are there, because of the accrued interest. It can only be a never-ending escalation, by the banks issuing more new loans so that people can pay the installments for the old loans.

That appears to work as long as there is never-ending expansion. As long as more and more stuff is being produced and people need more and more money, the system might keep working.

But, we are on a limited planet, with mostly limited resources. Certain activities can not be expanded indefinitely. There is for example a limited number of physical assets that the banks can get as security or as payment for the loans, and sooner or later they would all be owned by banks, and the escalation would stop.

And now, if we look around us, most people seem to have a perpetual scarcity of money. There somehow doesn't really seem to be enough to go around. However, our ongoing need to provide a livelyhood for ourselves and our families drive us to pursue more money anyway, and one way or another we get by. And we are too busy to notice that there is something fishy about this lack of money. There will always be somebody around who has a lot of it, so that we are reminded that this would be possible for us too. But we might not see that it wouldn't be possible for everybody in the current system.

The current system is built on scarcity. The system is driven by the idea that there isn't enough, and we have to compete for what is there.

It happens not to be true. If we add all the cummulative resources together and manage them well we could very well all live comfortably. It is just that the economic system tells us that we mostly don't own these resources, but they are just beyond our reach, and if we manage our credit well, we can keep being rewarded with nice stuff. Never mind that the bank owns our houses and our cars and the companies we work for, we can at least pretend that we own them for a while.

The weird thing is that most people don't know these things at all. Most people think that the national debt is a big problem, but they haven't really thought of who this money is owed to. Or how come almost all countries in the world can have such astronomic debts that we all have to work twice as hard just to pay off the interest to it. And all of this money is owed to somebody who didn't own any real value in the first place.

There are plenty of economic experts around who will provide very complicated explanations for what is wrong with the economy. There is too much unemployment or we buy too much stuff from Japan or something. Whereas the actual mechanics of the economic system are never mentioned.

I suppose that if a solution had to be found centrally it would be something along the lines of nationalizing all the central banks and canceling all the national debts, which never existed in the first place anyway. And then letting the governments issue money without interest. I'm sure there would be some major repercussions in that that I don't understand, but I'd say that sounds like an attractive solution just speaking from common sense.

If that doesn't happen I'd say the solution is in creating different schemes of economic interaction that aren't based on borrowed money that has to perpetually be paid back with more borrowed money.

A system is a set of relations that influence behavior. An economic system that were inherently viable could influence people to behave in generally more sane and enjoyable ways.

A system based on a fixed quantity of assets, such as gold, is problematic in that the amount of produced value is mostly increasing in the world. So, if there were only a fixed quantity of money, there still wouldn't be enough to buy everything.

I think what is needed is a system that allows money to be created in tune with value being produced. That is, at the same time as something that is perceived valuable is being created, an equivalent amount of money to pay for it needs to be brought into existence. And that money needs to be available for those who need and appreciate the created value. And there should be no future installments due based on that exchange.

Ultimately I don't think money will be needed at all. However, to get to a future where resouces are used and shared in a sensible way, we might need some intermediary systems that point in that direction.

How exactly to do that, I don't know. I do know that it is possible. I also know that isn't very likely to be done through the mechanics of the old system. You probably don't go to the bank and get a loan to finance a new money system. You just make your own system and start using it more and more.